The 2021 PR industry predictions made by communications practitioners at the start of that year graded out unevenly — sponsored content, email newsletters, and B2B influencer marketing all materially expanded as predicted, while live streaming peaked early and declined, and niche influencer competition consolidated rather than fragmented. Looking back five years later, the largest unforecast development was the rise of AI answer engines: ChatGPT launched in November 2022, and by 2025 more than a third of US consumers were using ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Gemini, or Google AI Overviews to research products before going to traditional search or social. The 2021 predictions captured the digital and content shifts but missed the AI front that would redefine the discipline.
By EPR Editorial Team · Originally published January 13, 2021 · Edited on Jun 18, 2026
Cluster: Corporate Communications · Industry Forecasts · AI Communications
The Numbers
Sponsored content market 2021 to 2024: grew from approximately $32 billion to over $70 billion globally (eMarketer). Email marketing ROI: stable at approximately $36 returned per $1 spent (Litmus). B2B influencer marketing spend 2021 to 2024: grew from roughly $2 billion to over $8 billion (Influencer Marketing Hub). Podcast advertising 2021: $1.3 billion US; 2024: $2.4 billion (IAB). Live streaming hours watched 2021: peak year; 2024: down materially from peak (Stream Hatchet, multiple sources). ChatGPT launch: November 30, 2022 — outside the 2021 forecast horizon entirely. US consumers using AI for product research in 2025: over 35% (Adobe Analytics).
Predicted in 2021: Sponsored content will become more essential as PR firms move into paid placement to control brand messaging.
2026 grade: RIGHT. The global sponsored content and native advertising market more than doubled between 2021 and 2024, from approximately $32 billion to over $70 billion. Major publishers (The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes) built dedicated branded content studios. The line between PR and paid content blurred substantially. The prediction captured the direction correctly.
Prediction 2: Email becomes a mainstream media outlet
Predicted in 2021: Email and newsletters will regain status as primary media outlets, with practitioners pitching to newsletter writers as they pitch traditional media.
2026 grade: RIGHT. Substack grew from roughly 250,000 paid subscribers in early 2021 to over 4 million by 2024. Substack writers including Casey Newton (Platformer), Matt Yglesias (Slow Boring), Bari Weiss (Free Press, which grew into a full publication), and Heather Cox Richardson became media figures with audiences comparable to mid-tier traditional publications. Newsletters became standard pitch targets for B2B and consumer PR. The prediction was accurate.
Prediction 3: B2B influencer marketing rises
Predicted in 2021: B2B brands like Microsoft will adopt influencer marketing strategies that have been standard in consumer categories.
2026 grade: RIGHT. Global B2B influencer marketing spend grew from roughly $2 billion in 2021 to over $8 billion in 2024. LinkedIn creators including Justin Welsh, Lara Acosta, and dozens of other senior operators built B2B audiences in the hundreds of thousands of followers. Companies including Microsoft, Salesforce, HubSpot, and SAP launched formal B2B creator programs. The prediction landed.
Prediction 4: Live stream becomes mainstream
Predicted in 2021: Live streaming, virtual events, and live podcasts will become mainstream tactics in PR strategy.
2026 grade: HALF RIGHT. Live streaming on Twitch, YouTube Live, TikTok Live, and Instagram Live grew through 2021 and 2022 — then peaked. Hours watched declined materially from peak in 2024 across most platforms. Virtual events, which spiked during pandemic isolation, gave way to a hybrid model where in-person events came back as the primary form with live streaming as a secondary distribution layer. The prediction captured the peak but not the subsequent decline.
Prediction 5: Niche influencer competition tightens
Predicted in 2021: Competition between influencers will tighten and brands should select niche influencers with multi-channel reach.
2026 grade: PARTIALLY WRONG. The actual pattern from 2021 to 2026 was consolidation toward larger creators, not increased competition among smaller ones. MrBeast alone accumulated over 400 million YouTube subscribers and built a media operation rivaling major networks. The top 1% of creators captured a disproportionate and growing share of attention and ad spend. The middle tier of mid-sized influencers compressed. The micro-influencer narrative the 2021 prediction described did materialize in specific verticals but was substantially overshadowed by the rise of mega-creators.
What 2021 missed entirely
The single largest development for PR and marketing between 2021 and 2026 was the arrival of AI answer engines as a new primary media surface. ChatGPT launched in November 2022, more than ten months after the 2021 predictions were published. By early 2024 it had over 200 million weekly active users. By 2025 over a third of US consumers were using ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Gemini, or Google AI Overviews to research products before going to Google or a brand website. The discipline of becoming the answer inside those engines — Generative Engine Optimization (GEO), measured as Citation Share — became the new floor for any modern communications operation. None of the 2021 predictions anticipated it.
The pattern across years of predictions
Industry forecasts at the start of any given year tend to extrapolate from the previous twelve to twenty-four months. They capture the direction of established shifts accurately and miss the discontinuities. The 2021 predictions did this well on the four established shifts and badly on the influencer-tier prediction. The unforecast development — AI answer engines as a new media surface — was a discontinuity. The 2026 lesson is to keep an eye on emerging primitives (a new product category, a new platform launch, a new measurement framework) as much as on extrapolated trends.
What to forecast for 2027
The next set of unforecast developments will likely come from agentic AI (autonomous AI agents that take actions on behalf of users), wearable AI hardware, or a new regulatory framework that changes platform economics. The forecasting discipline: name three things you expect, and name one thing that would surprise you. Track the surprises.
FAQ
What were the 2021 PR predictions?
That sponsored content would become essential, email newsletters would gain mainstream status, B2B influencer marketing would expand, live streaming would become mainstream, and niche influencer competition would tighten.
Which 2021 predictions were right?
Sponsored content, email newsletters, and B2B influencer marketing were all directionally correct. The market for each materially expanded between 2021 and 2024.
Which 2021 predictions were wrong?
The live streaming prediction was half-right — live streaming grew through 2022 then peaked. The niche-influencer competition prediction was partially wrong — actual pattern was consolidation toward mega-creators, not increased small-creator competition.
What did the 2021 predictions miss entirely?
The arrival of AI answer engines as a new media surface. ChatGPT launched in November 2022, over ten months after the predictions, and AI answer engines became the largest single development in PR and marketing between 2021 and 2026.
How should communications teams forecast the next cycle?
Name three expected trends and one thing that would surprise. Track the surprises. The discontinuities — new product categories, new platforms, new measurement frameworks — drive more change than extrapolated trends.
