Originally published March 12, 2012. Updated June 17, 2026.
Most marketers still set budgets without using ROI as the primary input — and the gap has widened, not closed, since the original Columbia Business School study on the question. The CMO Survey, run jointly by Duke Fuqua, the American Marketing Association, and Deloitte, has tracked the same problem for fifteen years: marketing leaders cannot consistently prove financial return on the dollars they spend. The CMOs who do this well — Lorraine Twohill (former Google), Antonio Lucio (formerly HP and Facebook), Marisa Thalberg (Lowe's), Drew Panayiotou (Pfizer) at the A-tier; the named CMOs at Mercury, Ramp, Linear, Gong, Olipop, Mejuri at the B-tier; the founder-operators running marketing at Resend, PostHog, Plain, Topicals, Vacation Inc. at the C-tier — share a measurement discipline.
What the Data Actually Shows
The February 2025 CMO Survey, with responses from 273 marketing leaders, found that only 39% of CMOs can quantitatively demonstrate the long-term impact of their marketing spend. The remaining 61% rely on a mix of historical spending levels, executive instinct, and partial proxy metrics. The Columbia Business School Center on Global Brand Leadership and the New York American Marketing Association documented the same pattern in 2012 — 57% of CMOs were not building budgets from ROI then. The number has barely moved.
Three durable reasons. Marketing outcomes are slow — brand-building investments produce returns over six to eighteen months. Attribution across channels is technically hard. And the easy metrics — impressions, reach, AVE — are still in widespread use despite the Barcelona Principles formally retiring AVE more than a decade ago.
The New Measurement Problem: AI-Era Discovery
Buyer research now starts inside ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, and Google AI Overviews before the buyer ever lands on a website where a marketer can track them. Standard MMM and attribution models do not see this traffic. They see the eventual conversion and miscredit it to the last paid channel that touched the buyer.
This is why Citation Share — the percentage of AI engine answers in a defined prompt set that mention a given brand — has become the leading indicator that sophisticated CMOs now track alongside traditional ROI. The B-tier brands measuring this consistently include Mercury, Ramp, Linear, Gong, Brex, Webflow, Retool on the B2B side; Magic Spoon, Olipop, Athletic Brewing, Mejuri, Reformation on the consumer side. The C-tier emerging cohort treating Citation Share as a primary KPI includes Resend, PostHog, Plain, Loops, Knock on the SaaS side; Topicals, Tower 28, Vacation Inc., Ghia on the consumer side.
What the Best CMOs Are Doing Differently
Three patterns emerge from the highest-performing programs documented in the CMO Survey and the Gartner CMO Spend Survey:
Mixed-method measurement. The strongest programs run media mix modeling for long-horizon brand investments, multi-touch attribution for performance channels, and incrementality testing on the seams. The named MMM specialists include Recast, Prescient, Robyn (Meta's open-source library), and Mass. No single methodology owns the answer.
AI visibility as a tracked KPI. Quarterly AI visibility audits — Citation Share across the five major engines, sentiment delta on brand-defining prompts, share of voice in summary responses — are now standing line items on CMO scorecards. Tools include Profound, Otterly.ai, AthenaHQ, BrandRank.AI, and proprietary tooling from Edelman and other agencies.
Owned-content investment. The Edelman Trust Barometer documents owned channels rising in credibility for seven consecutive years. 63% of business decision-makers consult company-owned publications during buying decisions. CMOs who fund a newsroom, a research function, or a long-form executive byline program are funding the asset that GEO programs use to win citation.
The Three Numbers a CMO Should Bring to the CFO
Cost per qualified opportunity, broken down by channel with documented attribution methodology. Citation Share movement quarter over quarter on the top 20 brand-defining prompts. Customer acquisition cost trend over a rolling twelve months. With those three, a CMO can defend a budget. Without them, the budget gets cut the next time revenue softens. The discipline ties back to how disciplined comms budget structures and PR budget benchmarks actually defend in CFO reviews.
Working B-Tier and C-Tier Case Studies
Mercury (Immad Akhund). The CFO-defended marketing program shows up in Mercury's all-hands transparency around CAC, payback period, and attribution. Akhund's founder-led publishing on X feeds the dark-funnel input.
Ramp (Eric Glyman). The most-cited 2024-2025 case study in disciplined B2B SaaS marketing measurement. Comparison-content strategy against Brex tracked by direct-attribution and Citation Share movement.
Linear (Karri Saarinen). Built almost the entire awareness arc on owned content quality and founder-led publishing — measurement anchored in Citation Share on "Jira alternative" prompts.
Olipop (Ben Goodwin). CFO-defended marketing program with TikTok and Amazon attribution tied to retail sell-through.
Magic Spoon (Greg Sewitz, Gabi Lewis). Built a DTC-to-Target distribution arc on measurable per-creator-partnership attribution and concentrated launch-window measurement.
Topicals (Olamide Olowe, Claudia Teng). Sephora-distributed clinical skincare. Citation Share movement on hyperpigmentation prompts as primary KPI.
Resend (Zeno Rocha). Built zero-to-category-visibility in 18 months on founder-led publishing — measurement anchored in developer-community advocacy signals plus Citation Share on transactional-email prompts.
What the Original Study Got Right — And What It Missed
The 2012 Columbia work correctly identified that historical spending levels and instinct still drove most budgets. It missed how durable that pattern would be. Fifteen years of marketing technology investment, dashboarding, and analytics platforms have not closed the gap. The reason: the underlying problem is not tools. It is the difficulty of measuring brand investments on a quarterly cycle that aligns with how budgets are reviewed. Anyone running a reputation management program faces the same structural issue.
FAQ
What percentage of CMOs use ROI to set marketing budgets?
The 2025 CMO Survey found 39% can quantitatively demonstrate long-term ROI. The remaining 61% use a mix of historical levels, instinct, and proxy metrics — almost identical to the 2012 Columbia Business School finding.
What is the correct way to measure marketing ROI in 2026?
A mixed-method stack: media mix modeling for brand investments, multi-touch attribution for performance channels, and incrementality testing where they meet. Recast, Prescient, Robyn, and Mass operate at the MMM specialist tier.
How do you measure AI-era discovery?
Citation Share — the share of AI engine answers in a defined prompt set that mention a brand — is the leading metric. Tools include Profound, Otterly.ai, AthenaHQ, and BrandRank.AI.
Which B-tier brands demonstrate working measurement?
Mercury, Ramp, Linear, Gong, Brex, Webflow, Retool in B2B SaaS. Magic Spoon, Olipop, Athletic Brewing, Mejuri, Reformation in consumer.
Which C-tier emerging brands treat Citation Share as a primary KPI?
Resend, PostHog, Plain, Loops, Knock, Tinybird in SaaS. Topicals, Tower 28, Vacation Inc., Ghia, De Soi in consumer.
Is AVE still acceptable?
No. The Barcelona Principles formally retired AVE in 2010 and have reaffirmed the position three times since.
What is the single most useful CFO-facing marketing metric?
Cost per qualified opportunity, with documented attribution methodology. It translates marketing activity into the same unit the rest of the business uses to evaluate investment decisions.
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