Olam, the institutional publication covering the global Jewish business economy, has published a flagship strategic report projecting between $650 billion and $1.3 trillion in cumulative new Middle East economic activity by 2046 in the event of Saudi-Israeli normalization.
The 31-page report, "The $1 Trillion Deal: AI Models the Economic Future of Saudi-Israeli Normalization," uses AI-driven scenario analysis across three time horizons — 2029, 2034, and 2046 — and is anchored to the Israel-UAE commercial trajectory since 2020, which saw bilateral trade grow 15x in four years under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.
The report is available in full on olam.business. A printable PDF is available to journalists and institutional readers on request to press@everything-pr.com.
The Headline Numbers
Olam projects that a Saudi-Israeli normalization executed on the current 2027-2029 diplomatic trajectory will catalyze:
- $25–$60 billion in annual Saudi-Israeli bilateral trade by 2046 (base case)
- $200 billion or more in cumulative Gulf sovereign and venture capital deployed into Israeli technology by 2046
- $200–$500 billion in cumulative Israeli-linked Saudi AI infrastructure value
- $15–$25 billion in annual Israeli defense exports to Saudi Arabia by 2046
- $300–$600 billion in annual IMEC corridor goods value through Haifa
- 3 million or more annual Israeli tourists to Saudi Arabia
- The Accords economic bloc emerging as the third-largest AI compute concentration in the world, behind only the United States and China
Cumulative GDP impact across the Accords bloc: $650 billion to $1.3 trillion by 2046.
"When Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations, the Middle East economy changes permanently," said Ronn Torossian, publisher of Olam and Everything-PR. "This is not a diplomatic thought experiment. It is an economic model of what a new Middle East will build. Three horizons. Eight sectors. One trillion dollars."
The Methodology
The report's modeling is calibrated to four classes of input.
The Israel-UAE precedent. Bilateral trade between Israel and the UAE grew from approximately $200 million in 2020 to over $3 billion in 2024 — a 15x expansion in four years — under the legal architecture of the Israel-UAE CEPA that entered into force on April 1, 2023. Olam applies Saudi-scale multipliers to this trajectory: Saudi GDP is roughly 2.3x the UAE's, population 3x, and sovereign wealth (PIF AUM at $925 billion) approximately 2.5x Mubadala's.
Saudi sovereign commitments. The Public Investment Fund 2026-2030 strategy approved by the PIF board in April 2026 explicitly prioritizes artificial intelligence as one of four growth sectors. Humain, PIF's national AI champion chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has announced $23 billion in committed partnerships and targets 3 to 6 gigawatts of AI compute capacity — representing $90 billion to $300 billion in total infrastructure investment. Background on the Kingdom's broader brand and culture investment program is documented in EPR's Saudi Arabia Marketing & Brand Study 2026 and the long-form Saudi Arabia U.S. Influence Machine coverage.
Israeli economic capacity. Israeli high-tech contributes 17-20% of national GDP and 53-60% of total exports. Civilian R&D spending of 6.35% of GDP is the highest in the world. Israeli cybersecurity exports exceed $13 billion annually. The Israeli silicon design ecosystem is the second-largest globally.
Published literature. Inputs include Atlantic Council research, TRENDS Research IMEC analysis, Heritage Foundation Abraham Accords tracking, Middle East Institute briefings, Fathom Journal estimates, and primary disclosures from the Public Investment Fund and Humain.
The AI Partnership
The report identifies the AI infrastructure partnership as the single largest economic line in the modeling. Saudi Arabia is building the largest non-U.S. hyperscaler footprint outside China, anchored on AWS, Microsoft, Oracle, and NVIDIA partnerships. By 2030, total Saudi AI compute capacity is projected to reach the equivalent of mid-tier U.S. hyperscale regions.
Israeli R&D, cybersecurity, chip design, and AI silicon are structurally embedded in the U.S. hyperscaler stack that Saudi Arabia is buying. Under normalization, Israeli-linked share of Saudi AI infrastructure spending is estimated at 5-15% of total — translating to $40-$100 billion in cumulative Israeli-linked value by 2034 and $200-$500 billion by 2046.
"Saudi capital plus Israeli innovation equals one of the most powerful AI partnerships outside the United States and China," Torossian said. "Saudi Arabia is building a tier-one sovereign AI stack at unprecedented speed and scale. Reaching the frontier of that build requires the deepest innovation ecosystems in the world. The closest non-U.S. innovation ecosystem is Israeli. The complementarity is exact."
The IMEC Unlock
The report dedicates a chapter to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced at the G20 Summit in September 2023 and signed by India, the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the European Union, Italy, France, and Germany.
The corridor's multimodal route connects India's western ports by sea to Gulf hubs, then by rail across Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Haifa in Israel, and then by maritime route to European ports. At full operation, the corridor cuts India-to-Europe transit time by 40% versus the Suez route and reduces logistics costs by 30%.
Haifa is the corridor's European terminal. The Israeli rail spine connecting Jordan to Haifa is the critical missing infrastructure segment — and depends on Saudi-Israeli normalization to be built. The report identifies the corridor as the second-largest economic line in the modeling, projecting $300-$600 billion in annual goods value moving through the chain by 2046.
The Jewish Business Frame
The report includes a chapter specific to Olam's editorial mission: the implications of Saudi-Israeli normalization for the global Jewish business community.
The Israel-UAE corridor since 2020 produced what the report identifies as the largest Jewish commercial presence in the Arab world in a century. Saudi normalization scales that infrastructure to the largest Arab economy — home to 33 million people and the spiritual center of the Sunni Arab world.
Concrete projections include: Saudi sovereign capital flowing into Israeli VC funds at $5-$15 billion annually by 2034; integrated capital markets across Tel Aviv, Riyadh (Tadawul), and Abu Dhabi with dual listings becoming standard; branded kosher hospitality at scale in Riyadh, Jeddah, NEOM, and AlUla; direct co-investment by Jewish family offices alongside PIF; and a combined Accords-bloc kosher economy reaching $5-$10 billion annually.
The Distribution Plan
Olam's publishers indicate the report will anchor a multi-piece editorial program across the Everything-PR publication network in the weeks following launch, with chapter-specific deep dives on the Saudi-Israeli AI partnership, the IMEC corridor, the American strategic interest, and the Jewish business economy expected to follow.
The report itself is freely accessible at olam.business. The 31-page PDF is available to journalists, institutional researchers, and policymakers on request via press@everything-pr.com.
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Disclosure: Olam and Everything-PR are both published by Ronn Torossian. Editorial decisions on each publication are made independently by their respective editorial teams.
