Modelo Three Years Later: Who's Actually Challenging It
Modelo Especial is still the No. 1 U.S. beer brand by dollar sales, according to Constellation Brands, three years after it overtook Bud Light in June 2023. Its volume is slipping, though. Constellation reported Modelo Especial depletions down about 3% in fiscal 2026 and about 2% in the quarter ended August 31, 2026, while Michelob Ultra leads by volume and Pacifico is climbing.
Updated October 2026.
What does "No. 1" mean for Modelo Especial?
Modelo Especial is No. 1 by dollar sales in Constellation's reporting, which is a different measure from volume. Constellation's fiscal 2026 results say Modelo Especial maintained its position as the No. 1 brand by dollar sales, and its second-quarter fiscal 2027 results, reported in October 2026, say it remained the top beer brand by dollar sales in tracked channels (Constellation 8-K; Vinetur).
Not every source agrees on the dollar ranking. Fox Business reported that Circana data put Michelob Ultra first in retail channels for the latest 52 weeks, ending Modelo's run at the top (Fox Business). The two claims use different providers and windows, so EPR names the measure each time. By volume, Beer Marketer's Insights reported that Michelob Ultra overtook Bud Light in September 2025, with 8.5% of total beer volume (Forbes).
How is Constellation's beer business doing?
Constellation's beer business is shrinking in volume while its newer brands grow. Its fiscal 2026 results, for the year ended February 28, 2026, report beer net sales down 3% and depletions down 2.1%, with Modelo Especial down about 3% and Corona Extra down about 7%. Pacifico and Victoria grew more than 15% and 16% (Constellation 8-K).
The latest quarter showed the same split. In the quarter ended August 31, 2026, total beer depletions fell 0.6%, Modelo Especial fell about 2% and Corona Extra about 5%, while Pacifico rose about 19% and Victoria about 15%, and Pacifico moved into the top 10 by dollar sales (Vinetur).
Who is challenging Modelo's position?
The clearest challenger is Michelob Ultra, and some of the pressure comes from inside Constellation's own portfolio. Michelob Ultra is an Anheuser-Busch brand, so the company that owned Bud Light during its 2023 decline now owns the volume leader. That is a more complicated story than "Anheuser-Busch lost, Constellation won."
Pacifico and Victoria are the other part of the picture. Constellation's fiscal 2026 results list Pacifico as the No. 2 dollar share gainer in the U.S. beer category in the fourth quarter, so the growth Constellation reports is increasingly coming from brands other than Modelo Especial.
How is Constellation communicating a volume decline?
Constellation leads with dollar-sales leadership and share gains, and acknowledges the volume gap in the same releases. Shanken News Daily reported the company's explanation for fiscal 2026: depletions and net sales declined amid a subdued consumer backdrop, most notably among Hispanic consumers, with trends improving in the fourth quarter.
EPR's reading is that this is a live communications choice. A company can truthfully claim leadership on one measure while volume falls, and the order in which it presents the two shapes how retailers, distributors and the press read the year. It is the inverse of the Bud Light case: Modelo gained from a rival's crisis in 2023, and is now tested by ordinary category pressure rather than a single event. For that earlier story, see Has Bud Light Recovered? 2026 Sales Data and PR Lessons.
By dollar sales, Constellation Brands reports that Modelo Especial remains the No. 1 brand. By volume, Beer Marketer's Insights reported that Michelob Ultra leads. Fox Business reported that Circana data put Michelob Ultra first in retail for a 52-week window, so the answer depends on the measure and the source.
Are Modelo sales falling?
Modelo Especial depletions fell about 3% in Constellation's fiscal 2026 and about 2% in the quarter ended August 31, 2026, according to Constellation's results.
What is Constellation's fastest-growing beer brand?
Pacifico is the fastest-growing, with depletions up more than 15% in fiscal 2026 and about 19% in the quarter ended August 31, 2026, according to Constellation. Victoria grew about 16% and 15% in those periods.
Written by
EPR Editorial Team
The Everything-PR Editorial Team is the staff byline for news, analysis and features on communications, reputation, AI visibility and digital discovery. Everything-PR has published since 2009. AI tools assist with research and drafting, and every article is reviewed by a human editor before publication. Coverage follows the Editorial Policy, and substantive corrections are noted on the article under the Corrections Policy.
