EPR Editorial Team8 min read
Jewelry faces the sharpest holiday spending pullback among discretionary retail categories in 2026, even though total US holiday spending is projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time. McKinsey's July-August 2026 consumer survey found jewelry among the categories most likely to see reduced spending intent. Brands can respond with specific messaging and by reaching Gen Z, the segment moving the other way.
Updated October 26, 2026. Part of EPR's luxury and retail coverage.
Jewelry wins on emotionally anchored, single-occasion holidays and faces more price comparison in the broad holiday season. The table matches each occasion to the data reported in this article and the messaging that fits it.
| Occasion or segment | Reported spending signal | Buyer mindset | Messaging to lead with |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valentine's Day 2026 | Jewelry led gift categories for the tenth year, at $7 billion of $29.1 billion total | Specific date and emotional obligation | Meaning and personal connection |
| Mother's Day 2026 | Jewelry led at $7.5 billion of a record $38 billion; 45% of consumers planned to buy jewelry | Specific date and emotional obligation | Gratitude and keepsake value |
| Holiday season 2026 | Among categories with the sharpest pullback in spending intent | Cross-shopping and value comparison | A specific claim that cannot be cross-shopped |
| Gen Z buyers, ages 14 to 29 | Comparatively greater planned spending on jewelry and accessories | Self-expression and gifting | Creative and channels aimed at younger buyers |
Consumers plan to hold spending steady this holiday season, but jewelry is one of the categories most likely to see a spending cut. McKinsey's consumer sentiment survey, conducted July 29 through August 5, 2026, found that 47% of consumers expect to spend about the same as last year across all categories. Another 23% plan to spend more, and 21% plan to spend less.
Jewelry sat among the discretionary categories facing the sharpest pullback in spending intentions, according to McKinsey's findings as reported by IDEX Online. This is a challenge for the jewelry sector during the upcoming holiday season.
Why it works: A consumer sentiment survey captures stated intent before the season begins, which helps retailers plan inventory and marketing months in advance. When jewelry underperforms the category average in such a survey, retailers can adjust messaging, rather than just discounting, before the season's sales are finalized.
Jewelry is not losing its place as a gift category overall, but it is losing share specifically within the holiday shopping season. This is a narrower claim than a general decline in gifting. The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics found jewelry led all Valentine's Day 2026 gift categories for the tenth consecutive year.
Shoppers were projected to spend $7 billion on jewelry alone for Valentine's Day, nearly a quarter of total Valentine's Day spending of $29.1 billion. The same pattern held for Mother's Day 2026. NRF's survey found jewelry led total spending at $7.5 billion, up from $7 billion the prior year, out of a record $38 billion in total Mother's Day spending.
Additionally, 45% of consumers planned to buy jewelry for a loved one on Mother's Day. Jewelry is not a weak gift category. It wins on emotionally anchored, single-occasion holidays and loses ground during the broader, more price-competitive Christmas and end-of-year shopping season.
Jewelry underperforms during the broader holiday season because that season rewards value messaging and cross-shopped comparison, which is the opposite of how most jewelry brands compete. Bain's 2026 Holiday Shopping Outlook advises retailers to lead with value and emphasize what cannot be cross-shopped.
Examples of non-cross-shoppable items include exclusive partner products and unique gift bundles. This advice exists because holiday shoppers comparison-shop more intensely than Valentine's Day or Mother's Day shoppers do.
Why it works: A Valentine's Day or Mother's Day purchase is tied to a specific date and a specific emotional obligation. This narrows the buyer's real alternative from "any gift" to "jewelry or a small number of comparable categories." A holiday-season purchase competes against every other gift category, from electronics to experiences, which is a much harder comparison for a jewelry brand to win on price alone.
Younger jewelry buyers are the exception to the broader category-wide spending pullback. McKinsey's research found that Gen Z, ages 14 to 29, stood out for comparatively greater planned spending on beauty and personal care, jewelry and accessories, footwear, and entertainment at home relative to other generations.
This suggests jewelry may hold up better with younger buyers even as the category pulls back overall. A brand targeting the broad holiday shopper faces the sharpest headwind McKinsey documented. A brand that can credibly reach Gen Z buyers targets a segment moving in the opposite direction from the category average.
A jewelry brand should own a specific, ownable claim rather than compete on price against every other holiday gift category. The same lesson appears in the adjacent watch category. The Luxury Watches AI Visibility Index 2026 found that Rolex holds an estimated 17% share of AI citations for the unqualified query "best luxury watch."
Patek Philippe and Omega each earned meaningful citation share only on a narrower, qualified query: "best investment watch" and "best alternative to a Rolex," respectively. Bain's advice, to emphasize what cannot be cross-shopped, is the retail version of the same mechanism.
A gift bundle only a single retailer offers, or a design only a single brand makes, is not just a better sales pitch. It is the qualifier an AI engine can retrieve the brand on when a shrinking pool of jewelry-intent holiday buyers looks for a specific answer instead of a generic one.
A jewelry brand should adjust its holiday marketing now, before the season starts. McKinsey's survey data was collected in late July and early August, giving retailers roughly four months of lead time before peak shopping. Three adjustments follow directly from the data.
First, shift messaging away from generic gifting language and toward the specific, non-cross-shoppable claim Bain recommends. Second, weight holiday creative and channel spend toward Gen Z, the segment McKinsey found moving against the category-wide pullback. Third, treat AI-engine visibility on a specific qualifier as part of the same discovery layer that traditional search and social already cover, not a separate initiative.
Three lessons follow for jewelry brands, PR professionals, and CMOs.
For related reading, see Jewelry Public Relations: The Discipline and the Playbook and How to Market a Jewelry Brand in 2026.
This page draws on McKinsey's July-August 2026 consumer survey as reported by IDEX Online, Bain & Co.'s 2026 Holiday Shopping Outlook, and NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics surveys. Figures were last reviewed on October 26, 2026. Everything-PR is editorially independent of the brands and firms mentioned.
Jewelry is facing the sharpest spending pullback among discretionary categories specifically during the broader holiday shopping season. This finding comes from McKinsey's July-August 2026 consumer survey, even as jewelry continues to lead single-occasion gifting holidays like Valentine's Day and Mother's Day.
McKinsey did not disclose a specific dollar figure for holiday jewelry spending, but found jewelry among the categories most likely to see reduced spending intent. Bain & Co. projects total 2026 holiday retail spending will grow 4.5% to top $1 trillion for the first time.
Gen Z consumers, ages 14 to 29, showed comparatively greater planned spending on jewelry and accessories relative to other generations, according to McKinsey's 2026 research.
Jewelry brands should lead with a specific, non-cross-shoppable claim rather than competing on price, as advised by Bain & Co.'s 2026 Holiday Shopping Outlook, and weight spending toward Gen Z.
Valentine's Day and Mother's Day purchases are tied to a specific date and emotional obligation, which narrows a buyer's real alternative to jewelry or a small number of comparable categories. A holiday-season purchase competes against every other gift category, which is a harder comparison for jewelry to win on price alone.
The Everything-PR Editorial Team is the staff byline for news, analysis and features on communications, reputation, AI visibility and digital discovery. Everything-PR has published since 2009. AI tools assist with research and drafting, and every article is reviewed by a human editor before publication. Coverage follows the Editorial Policy, and substantive corrections are noted on the article under the Corrections Policy.
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